Have Iran-Israel Missile Attacks Enabled Mutual Deterrence?

Iranian long-range missiles and their reach

Source: Media reports

Drones + Missiles swarm used in attack on Israel

Iran apparently “informed” America through the Swiss diplomatic mission in Tehran 48 hours before attacking Israel leading to fighter jets and air defenses in full preparedness. Interception of a large number of missiles and drones by Israeli, American, British, French, and Jordanian fighter jets was made possible due to having sufficient advance information.

In this context, the possible impact of a surprise Iranian attack with an even greater number of missiles than on April 14 holds a real possibility of significant damage inside Israel.

Iran revealed advances made in missile technology in the attacks on Israel. Among the Iranian missiles, was a new maneuverable ballistic missile, the Emad, designed to evade missile defense systems by maneuvering after entering the atmosphere.  Iranian media has claimed that many of the Emads managed to break through the web of Israeli and Western air defenses.

"This was the first time that precision Iranian missiles were used against Israel in an operation, in the largest ballistic and cruise missile attack ever recorded," Tal Inbar, an expert on the Iranian missile program, was quoted as saying by The Jerusalem Post. "Not even the Russian missile barrage against Ukraine reached these dimensions. By intercepting the missiles through cooperation with foreign countries, we saw the implementation of capabilities and joint operational language developed in the Iron Shield Operation conducted by Israel and the US, with a most impressive success."

Israel's malign activity against Iran has been a regular feature of its military and intelligence agencies over the years.

From the targeted killings of several Iranian nuclear scientists in 2010-2012, to the daylight shooting by a remote-controlled machine gun of top nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in November 27, 2020, to the explosion in Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility in April 11, 2021, the Israeli response to Iran’s nuclear program have been marked by covert operations, assassinations, and sabotage.

Israeli intelligence agencies have been blamed for these acts though the country's government has never owned up the killings and destruction.

In addition, Israeli warplanes have struck targets in Syria and Lebanon at infrequent intervals over the last few years where in most of the attacks Iranian military officials or equipment has been killed. The Damascus and Aleppo airports have been partly damaged in these attacks.

“Iranian officials have subsequently made it clear that in the interests of regional peace and stability and in the service of international law, continued recklessness and rogue behavior by Israel or other enemies will be met with legitimate self-defense in the form of increasingly strong military responses launched directly from Iranian territory. Thus, deterrence has been clearly and effectively established via this legitimate and well-deserved slap in the face of Zionism and American imperialism,” Yaghoubian added.

 Table showing purported Israeli attacks on Iranian military advisors, scientists and assets over the years:

 The big question is, will Iran’s newly established missile power halt the frequent Israeli attacks against Iranian interests in Syria and Lebanon, not to mention covert attacks inside Iran? Furthermore, will Iran cease supporting pro-Shia groups in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon to maintain this deterrence?