Embraer Announces Its Long-Term Aviation Market Outlook

SO JOS DOS CAMPOS, Brazil --- Embraer presented its 20-year forecast, today, of the world demand for 30- to 120-seat commercial jets, and its ten-year forecast for the business aviation market. The announcement was made at the close of the ninth edition of the annual Embraer Day encounter with analysts and investors, organized by the Company and held, this year, on November 6 and 7, in So Jos dos Campos, Brazil.>> Long-Term Market Outlook: Commercial Aviation Market>> World air travel demand should grow on an average of 5% per year, from 2009 to 2028. Embraer estimates that the air transportation industry will react positively, after the end of the current economic crisis, and that the long-term growth trend will be maintained. China will lead the growth in the next 20 years, with an average annual rate of more than 7.5%, followed by the emerging regions of Latin America and Russia & Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), both at 6% per year. Asia Pacific and Africa will grow about 5%, and the European and North American markets, 4%.>> Embraer foresees a global demand of 6,750 jets with a 30- to 120-seat capacity over the next 20 years, which will generate sales of new aircraft totaling US$ 220 billion. Of this total, 2,950 jets should be delivered between 2009 and 2018, and the remaining 3,800 units between 2019 and 2028.>> The forecast indicates that the 30- to 60-seat capacity segment will be under pressure, over the next five years, due to the economic crisis and fuel prices, forcing airlines to review their strategies, mainly in the North American environment. The 50-seat regional jet market has achieved maturity, but tends to continue supporting the U.S. and European systems and to contribute to the development of regional aviation in Russia & CIS, Mexico, Africa and South America.