First F-16s Arrive in Ukraine

The first U.S.-made F-16s have arrived in Ukraine, the country’s defense ministry confirmed today.

“F-16s are in Ukraine. Welcome to the family!” the ministry announced in a social media post.

Western media recently reported that the F-16 weapons package for Ukraine includes AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missiles, JDAM kits for precision-guided bombs, GBU munitions, and the latest AIM-120 AMRAAM and AIM-9X Sidewinder air-to-air missiles. The Ukrainian Air Force is already familiar with some of these munitions, having adapted them for use on Soviet-built aircraft. Ukraine has modified AGM-88 HARM missiles to its Russian-built aircraft, allowing them to target radar sites. However, this adaptation has limitations, and the missiles cannot be dynamically retargeted. The F-16s will enable more flexible and precise employment.

Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway have committed to shipping more than 60 F-16 jets to Ukraine. Ukraine is expected to receive six planes by the end of summer and up to 20 by the end of the year.

On July 9, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that his country needed at least 128 F-16s, and that the ones on the way were too few and arriving too late in the conflict. “Even if we have 50, it’s nothing… They (the Russians) have 300… because we are defending, we need 128,” Zelenskyy said.

The F-16s will likely have three core missions: intercepting Russian missiles and drones, suppressing enemy air defense systems, and striking Russian troop positions and ammunition depots. Classified details include the targets allowed by Western governments and the weapons provided. The F-16s might carry British Storm Shadow missiles with a range of over 250 km, potentially striking targets in Russia. They may also receive long-range air-to-air missiles to threaten Russian bombers and fighter jets. The F-16's advanced radars will enable Ukrainian pilots to pinpoint targets farther away than with their current MiG-29s, Su-27s, and Su-24s.

The F-16s require extensive support personnel, including maintenance engineers, munitions loaders, intelligence analysts, and emergency crews. Ukraine must establish radar stations, reinforced hangars, spare parts supplies, and refueling systems. Quality airfields are crucial as the F-16's air intake can suck in debris from the tarmac.

Russia’s response to Ukraine receiving F-16s

Russia has been targeting Ukrainian airfields in Dolgintsevo and Mirgorod to prevent the Ukrainian Air Force from operating the F-16 fighter jets, which are expected to start operations later this summer.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on August 1 that the F-16s will not change the conflict's course and that rewards are offered for destroying them. "These aircraft will arrive, but their numbers will gradually decrease… they will be shot down and destroyed. Naturally, these supplies will not significantly affect the dynamics of events on the front," Peskov told reporters during a news conference in Moscow.

Peskov referenced earlier announcements about rewards for Russian military personnel who shoot down F-16s. On June 9, Sergey Shmotyev of Fores announced a 15 million rubles (approximately $169,000) reward for downing the first F-16 fighter jet supplied to Ukraine.

Russia will likely target F-16s on the ground with long-range missiles, having already targeted Ukraine's limited airfields. Analysts suggest parking F-16s in hardened hangars, dispersing them, using decoy aircraft, and taking off quickly during air raid warnings. Ukraine may station some F-16s at foreign bases, which Putin warned would be legitimate targets. In the air, Ukrainian F-16s will face Russia's S-300 and S-400 missile systems and hundreds of operational fighter jets with sophisticated air surveillance radars.

Another challenge will be Ukrainian pilots with no F-16 combat experience being put up against Russian Su-35s in dogfights.