China Increases Taiwan ADIZ Incursions by 300%; Taipei Mulling F-35 Jets, Advanced Weapons

China has increased its military flights into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) by 300%, according to the U.S. Air Force’s Indo-Pacific Command.

This escalation, reported by General Kevin B. Schneider, reflects rising regional tensions as Taiwan considers purchasing latest U.S. military equipment, including F-35 fighter jets, to strengthen its defenses.

General Schneider, in an interview published by NBC News on Nov. 9, noted a surge in People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) incursions over the past five months. He attributed the spike in activities, including frequent crossings into Taiwan’s ADIZ and the Taiwan Strait, to China's strategy of “bullying and aggressiveness.” Schneider cited an increase in incursions from 109 in June 2023 to 325 by July 2024, with the uptick starting after Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration in May.

“Whether it’s coming into the air defense identification zone or crossing the center line within the Taiwan Strait, since the inauguration we have seen a 300% increase in those air activities,” Schneider, an official who has 46,000 airmen under his command in Japan, South Korea, Hawaii, Alaska, and Guam, said.

Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., defended the increased military flights, stating they were necessary to counter Taiwan independence efforts and warn against external interference, adding that the actions align with international law and common practices.

Taiwan is evaluating a U.S. arms package estimated at over $15 billion, which may include up to 60 F-35 jets, Aegis destroyers, four E-2D Advanced Hawkeyes, 10 retired U.S. warships, and 400 Patriot missiles in response to increasing Chinese air activity in its air defense identification zone (ADIZ). The Financial Times reported these considerations on Nov. 11, highlighting Taiwan’s commitment to strengthening security.

Former Pentagon official Elbridge Colby, a potential candidate for a defense or national security role in a second Trump administration, has consistently urged Taiwan to boost its military spending. “Those who care about Taiwan should be super clear they need to dramatically step up. Their fate hangs in the balance,” he wrote on X.

Meanwhile, defense experts suggest F-35s and advanced air defense systems could significantly boost Taiwan's deterrence capabilities. However, former Pentagon officials recommend that Taiwan prioritize air defense systems and command infrastructure over expensive fighter jets, citing operational and budgetary concerns.

Informal discussions with Trump-era officials have identified Aegis destroyers as a priority, though some suggest Taiwan should focus on ammunition, air defenses, and command systems instead of high-cost platforms like the F-35. Su Tzu-yun of Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research supports Taiwan's pursuit of F-35s and retired U.S. warships. Former Pentagon officials Elbridge Colby and Heino Klinck also encourage increased defense spending, stressing the importance of critical systems.

U.S. arms sales to Taiwan reached $21 billion under Trump, with an additional $7 billion under Biden.