U.S.-Russia Proxy War in Ukraine Could Intensify if Ukraine Signs Minerals Deal

The U.S. could resume providing Ukraine with intelligence on Russian targets and restart arms shipments if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signs a minerals deal with Washington, despite a pause ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump.

This could mean that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could intensify as Ukraine could demand weapons for giving away rare earth minerals harvesting rights to Washington. The U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stated that the Ukraine war is actually a proxy war between Russia and the U.S. "Frankly, it’s a proxy war between nuclear powers: the United States, which is helping Ukraine, and Russia," Rubio said during an interview.

The Biden administration had supplied Ukraine with financial aid, weapons, and intelligence for long-range strikes against Russian targets. Trump’s government halted these efforts, but officials indicated the restrictions could be lifted if peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow progress.

Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, including nickel and lithium, are critical for U.S. industries. The U.S. Geological Survey has classified 50 minerals as essential for national security. Trump had previously expressed interest in securing access to Ukraine's mineral reserves.

Ukraine has faced setbacks since the suspension of U.S. support, with intelligence-sharing reportedly ending this week. Ukrainian officials warned that without U.S. intelligence, they are unable to track Russian strategic bombers and missile launches, affecting their defense capabilities.

Trump has criticized Zelensky for allegedly undermining his previous peace initiatives. "It’s hard to move forward when the other side says they have no interest in peace," Rubio stated, referencing past negotiations. However, he emphasized the U.S. remains focused on ending the war through negotiations.

Reports suggest the White House is preparing to offer Russia relief from sanctions imposed during Biden’s term as part of a broader peace negotiation. This move could shift the U.S. position on Russia, while European and G7 nations continue pushing to maintain sanctions.

Meanwhile, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly ordered U.S. Cyber Command to cease offensive operations against Russia, signaling a reduced U.S. military role unless there is a breakthrough in talks.

After a tense meeting on Friday with U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice-President JD Vance, where Trump accused him of refusing minerals deal with Russia, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is seeking to mend relations. Zelenskyy later sent a conciliatory letter expressing his commitment to negotiations and willingness to work under Trump’s “strong leadership.” In a speech to Congress on Tuesday, Trump called the letter “important,” citing ongoing talks with Russia and “strong signals” of readiness for peace.

Moscow has long asserted it is fighting a U.S.-led proxy war in Ukraine. Russian officials have repeatedly claimed that U.S. weapons and intelligence aid directly influence the battlefield.