Russian Arms Exports May Reach $17B After Ukraine Conflict Ends

Russia’s arms exports are expected to rise from $13.75 billion to $17 billion annually within four years after the Ukraine conflict ends, according to the Russian think tank Center for Analysis of Global Arms Trade (TsAMTO).

The center attributes the projected growth to increased demand for Russian military equipment, driven by its combat experience.

TsAMTO reports that Russia’s arms export portfolio currently stands at $13.75 billion, with state-owned Rosoboronexport managing an order book exceeding $60 billion. In 2024, Russia accounted for 12.32% of the global arms trade, ranking second behind the United States, which led with $42.3 billion in exports. France followed Russia with $7.7 billion. The ongoing Ukraine conflict has contributed to a surge in global arms sales as Western countries replace Soviet-era systems with new purchases.

Between 2021 and 2024, Russia exported approximately $56 billion worth of arms, ranking second globally behind the U.S., which recorded $153.3 billion in sales. France, Italy, and Germany followed with $36.8 billion, $23.7 billion, and $16.8 billion, respectively.

Projections for 2025-2028 indicate that global military spending will continue to rise, with increased demand for armored vehicles, air defense systems, and missile weaponry. Aviation equipment is expected to remain the largest sector, with a projected export volume of $175 billion over the next four years.

The Ukraine conflict has driven large-scale rearmament programs, particularly in Eastern Europe, while Western nations have supplied Kyiv with over $100 billion in military aid. This shift has led to increased arms procurement among donor countries, with an estimated $97 billion in additional purchases projected to replenish stockpiles. TsAMTO forecasts global arms exports to reach $120 billion in 2025, rising to $179 billion by 2028 if current trends continue.

Ukraine is also focusing on expanding its local defense industry, forming partnerships with Western weapons manufacturers such as Germany’s Rheinmetall. Additionally, Ukraine is working with U.S. firms on drone development. While American drone startups have faced challenges in delivering cost-effective, reliable aircraft for military use, Ukrainian firms have developed mass drone production capabilities despite limited resources. This partnership has drawn the attention of the U.S. Department of Defense, which is seeking more advanced solutions for future conflicts.

Rus