President Trump speaks with an F-35 pilot at Luke AFB, Oct. 19, 2018 @via social media
America’s policy of controlling F-35 usage, spares, and maintenance—combined with President Donald Trump’s threats of trade wars with Europe, halted military aid to Ukraine, closer ties with Russia, and plans to absorb Canada and Denmark’s Greenland—could cost Lockheed Martin billions in F-35 sales.
Foreign militaries’ reluctance to buy the F-35 adds to concerns over potential U.S. defense cuts. The Pentagon’s costliest program has faced criticism, including from Elon Musk, who called it inferior to drones.
Germany’s order for 35 F-35s is under review following reports that the U.S. could deactivate foreign-operated jets if certain conditions aren’t met. “If Germany risks facing restrictions similar to those imposed on Ukraine, it may cancel the F-35 deal,” said Wolfgang Ischinger, former head of the Munich Security Conference. His warning comes as Washington suspends military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, heightening fears of U.S. policy shifts affecting allied forces.
Online speculation about a so-called “kill switch” in the F-35 has further fueled concerns. Lockheed Martin has not directly denied the possibility but pointed to assurances from European F-35 operators. “We have no indication that this is possible,” said Belgian defense chief Derniere Heure. Switzerland’s defense ministry also dismissed claims that the aircraft could be remotely controlled or “blocked” externally.
Meanwhile, Airbus is actively promoting its Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 5 as a European alternative. “The Eurofighter is the backbone of the air force, and with Tranche 5, we are preparing for the future,” said Michael Schöllhorn, CEO of Airbus Defence and Space. He warned that dependence on U.S. military systems could increase strategic vulnerability, citing Denmark’s reliance on the F-35 as a potential risk. Schöllhorn even referenced Trump’s interest in acquiring Greenland, suggesting that American priorities might not always align with European security needs.
Even recently, Trump floated the idea of annexing Greenland, telling NATO’s Mark Rutte on March 13, “I think it will happen. We need that for international security.” Rutte dismissed the idea, refusing to “drag” NATO into it.
French President Emmanuel Macron called for offering the Rafale fighter jet to countries buying the F-35, pushing to curb Europe's reliance on U.S. defense systems. He warned that Europe must boost its own military industry to avoid dependence on American weapons.
Canada, which signed a $13 billion contract for 88 F-35s in 2023, is reconsidering its options. “Canada is actively looking at potential alternatives to the U.S.-built F-35 stealth fighter and will hold conversations with rival aircraft makers,” said Defense Minister Bill Blair, pointing to Sweden’s Gripen fighter. While Canada has committed funds for its first 16 F-35s, scheduled for delivery early next year, Blair suggested future replacements could come from European manufacturers.
Tensions between Canada and the U.S. have grown amid trade disputes and Trump’s past remarks about annexing Canada as the 51st U.S. state. His criticism of NATO members for underfunding defense has added to the uncertainty. “If they don’t pay, I’m not going to defend them,” he warned, raising doubts about Washington’s commitment to its allies.
Portugal, which had been considering the F-35 to replace its aging F-16s, is also weighing alternatives. “The recent U.S. stance in NATO and the international geostrategic dimension makes us think about the best options,” said Defense Minister Nuno Melo, emphasizing the risk of operational restrictions. “This ally of ours… may bring limitations in use, maintenance, components—everything that has to do with ensuring that aircraft will be operational and will be used in all kinds of scenarios.”
Lisbon has not yet finalized its next fighter jet choice, but options include the Dassault Rafale from France and Sweden’s Gripen E/F. While these alternatives often have higher initial costs than the F-35A, they offer lower long-term operational expenses.
The growing unease over the F-35 comes amid broader uncertainty about U.S. foreign policy. Trump has threatened trade wars with Europe, halted military aid to Ukraine while signaling closer ties with Russia, and suggested NATO allies should not rely on U.S. protection. His remarks about Greenland, a Danish territory, have only deepened concerns among European leaders. “We have to believe that, in all circumstances, these allies will be on our side,” said Melo.
Germany, which hosts multiple U.S. military bases, has frequently faced criticism from Washington over its defense spending. Meanwhile, the U.K.—another key NATO ally—is conducting a strategic defense review that could impact its plans to expand its F-35B fleet. London is currently a partner in the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) with Italy and Japan, while France, Germany, and Spain are jointly developing the Future Combat Air System (FCAS).
If Germany cancels its F-35 order, Lockheed Martin stands to lose approximately $5 billion. Canada’s deal values each F-35 at roughly $145 million, including support, spares, and training. The financial impact on U.K. interests and other NATO partners remains uncertain, but the debate over the future of the F-35 in allied fleets is gaining momentum.