Are U.S. Peace Moves Prompted by an Imploding Ukrainian Army?

Inability of Kyiv’s soldiers to dislodge Russia from the occupied DPR, LPR and Crimea, arrest of top Ukrainian commanders that has affected morale, failure to plug desertions besides wastage of western weapons could be the key reason why peace moves have gathered pace in recent days.

Last month, four top-level military commanders in Ukraine were arrested for alleged mismanagement of battlefield operations. Three generals, Yurii Halushkin, Artur Horbenko, and Illia Lapin are accused of failing to defend Kharkiv Oblast during Russia’s offensive in the area in May 2024.

In another case, Colonel Dmytro Riumshyn stands accused of failing to report and prevent desertions in his 155th Brigade, ultimately leading to 56 soldiers deserting while training in France, and hundreds more in Ukraine, according to Kyiv Independent.

Zelensky wants war, Army wants Peace?

“The arrests are seen within the Ukrainian armed forces as a heavy-handed attempt to suppress potential military opposition to peace negotiations and damage the popularity of military leadership before possible elections that could be held if the war comes to an end this year,” the publication commented.

“These investigations mean that the government is afraid of the military as a political force,”  Kyiv Independent quoted Ukrainian political scientist Yevhen Mahda as saying.

They also warn of the harm prosecuting high-level commanders can bring to the military during wartime.

Ukrainian law on “combat immunity” passed in 2022 promised commanders freedom to make decisions on the front without legal consequences for their failure. But the arrest of the four top officers shows vestiges of a broken military justice system, the publication noted.

Cracks in European Nations’ support for Ukraine

While European NATO nations publicly endorse ongoing military equipment support for Ukraine, cracks in their positions was evident during the recent Ukraine Contact Group meeting in Germany. The defence ministers of countries such as Czech Republic, Hungary and Belgium made comments supportive of the position of the U.S. to end the war which means a pause in the unbridled supply of arms and ammunition to Kyiv.

Wastage of expensive Western weapons:

Ukrainian soldiers have long been accused of expending more than required ammunition including missiles such as Storm Shadow/Scalp that cost hundreds of thousand dollars each. In addition, they have also been blamed for abandoning high tech weapons that the Russian forces have captured for possible reverse-engineering. This including cutting edge drone technology besides tanks such as the German Leopard, American Abrams and artillery equipment.

The Sunday Telegraph reported on February 17 citing British military sources that the Ukrainians opened fire indiscriminately from five NLAW anti-tank launchers at once. Each launch of the portable guided missile costs more than 100,000 pounds.

A British soldier who trained Ukrainian troops said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces used NLAWs as cheap hand-held grenade launchers, firing in bursts.