Australia to Consider French Submarines Amid AUKUS Deal Concerns?

The Australian government is facing calls to reconsider its plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines under the Aukus agreement, as concerns grow over delivery delays, rising costs, and U.S. submarine production shortages.

The Aukus pact, signed in 2021 between Australia, the U.S., and the U.K., includes a plan for Australia to receive between three and five U.S.-built Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines starting in 2032. These submarines would replace Australia’s aging Collins-class fleet until the country can produce its own Aukus submarines. Any transfer requires U.S. presidential approval to ensure it does not weaken American naval capabilities.

The incoming Australian government is under pressure to finalize a long-term submarine strategy by 2028. Delays in securing a replacement fleet could leave Australia without an effective submarine force, raising concerns about national security in the Indo-Pacific region. The first Collins-class submarine is scheduled for retirement in 2038 after 40 years of service, and experts say a replacement must be in place by 2036.

On February 8, Australia paid $500 million to the U.S. as the first installment of a $3 billion commitment to support American submarine production. However, Elbridge Colby, a nominee for a senior U.S. Department of Defense post, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that U.S. submarine production is not meeting targets.

Since 2022, the U.S. has produced 1.2 submarines per year instead of the 2.3 required to meet both domestic and Aukus-related needs.

“Our attack submarines are absolutely essential for making the defense of Taiwan or otherwise a viable option,” Colby said. He warned that supplying submarines to Australia could weaken U.S. capabilities in key areas like the Taiwan Strait and the first island chain. “So if we can produce the attack submarines in sufficient number and sufficient speed, then great. But if we can’t, [supplying Australia] becomes a very difficult problem because we don’t want our servicemen and women to be in a weaker position and more vulnerable and, God forbid, worse because they are not in the right place in the right time.”

An alternative proposal suggests Australia should adopt the French-designed Suffren-class submarine. Supporters argue it is smaller, easier to crew, and better suited for shallow waters around northern Australia. They estimate that 12 Suffren-class submarines could be acquired for the cost of eight larger Aukus vessels.

Advocates of the French option propose building the first three submarines in collaboration with France before shifting to domestic production. This plan would allow Australia to maintain the submarines independently while reducing reliance on U.S. supply chains.

A recent U.S. Congressional Research Service report highlighted the risk that the U.S. may not fulfill its promise to deliver submarines while maintaining its goal of 66 attack submarines. The U.S. Navy currently operates 49. An alternative proposal suggests the U.S. could operate its own submarines from Australian bases, allowing Australia to focus on other military capabilities such as long-range missiles, drones, or bombers.

Colby also urged Australia to raise its defense spending to 3% of GDP, citing rising threats from China. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said defense spending is projected to exceed $100 billion by 2033-34, reaching 2.4% of GDP.