Russia Expects Ukraine War to Help Propel Arms Exports to $15–17B a Year

Russia expects annual weapons exports to reach about $15–17 billion after the war in Ukraine ends, as weapons production capacity built during the conflict is redirected toward overseas markets.

Igor Korotchenko, Director of the Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade (CAWAT), said Russian arms sales could total $15–17 billion a year in the three to five years following the war.

“According to CAWAT estimates, in the next three to five years after the end of the Second World War, Russian arms export sales will amount to approximately $15–17 billion per year,” Korotchenko was quoted as saying by state-controlled RIA Novosti. “This is a very good figure.”

Korotchenko revealed that Russia’s defense industry expanded output during the war, increasing production across several categories. He said weapons refined using battlefield experience would support future export demand and help Russia maintain its position as the world’s second-largest arms exporter.

He said President Vladimir Putin, the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSMTC) and state arms exporter Rosoboronexport are working to preserve Russia’s standing in the global arms market.

“Despite the complex geopolitical situation and the Western-sanctioned war, our country is expanding military-technical ties with foreign countries and strictly fulfilling export obligations,” Korotchenko said, describing Russia as “a reliable business partner.”

Korotchenko said Rosoboronexport’s order book has exceeded $60 billion, the largest in the company’s history. He also pointed to overseas production projects, including the completion of the first stage of a 7.62mm ammunition plant in Venezuela. The facility is expected to produce up to 70 million cartridges a year despite sanctions pressure on both countries.

Rosoboronexport is continuing to seek new contracts through international arms exhibitions. Korotchenko said the company is discussing more than 100 cooperation projects with around 20 countries in Latin America, the Asia-Pacific, Africa, the Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States, with a combined potential value of over $30 billion.

Equipment showcased at arms shows includes tanks, transport helicopters, air defense systems, guided missiles, small arms and drones that Russia says have been used during the Ukraine war.

Korotchenko said centralized state control of arms exports allows Russia to offer long-term support packages. “The export of Russian weapons is actually the export of a security guarantee,” he said, adding that Russia commits to training, maintenance, spare parts and upgrades over the full life cycle of exported systems, which can last 20–30 years.